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Best of the Oil Drum Index
Up to date as of: June 1, 2008
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The Best of the Oil Drum Index
- Africa
- Australia
- Biomass/Biofuels/Biogassification
- Book Reviews
- Brazil
- Canada
- Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)
- China
- Climate Change
- Coal
- Collapse
- Conferences
- Cuba
- Economics, the Economy and Oil Prices
- Education on Peak Oil
- Electricity and the Grid
- Energy Legislation and Politics
- Energy Overview
- Energy Technology
- Financial Markets
- European Union
- International Energy Agency
- India
- Interviews
- Mainstream Media
- Mexico
- Middle East
- Multimedia
- Natural Gas
- Nigeria
- Nuclear
- Oil Forecasts and Peak Oil Predictions
- Oil Sands
- Peak Everything Else
- Peak Oil Theory
- Population, Agriculture and Food Supply
- Preparedness and Transition
- Press Releases
- Psychology
- Russia
- Saudi Arabia
- **Solar
- The Oil Drum (Website)
- Transportation
- United Kingdom
- United States
- Water
- Wind
- Year-End Summaries
Africa
Understanding the current energy crisis in South Africa, Feb 1, 2008
South Africa has been experiencing blackouts over the last three weeks or so, and is forecast to have electricty shortages until at least 2013...Here Simon and Jeremy discuss the issues in more detail.
Australia
**Australia: What to do, what to do about our energy situation?, May 15, 2008
If we are going to call on politicians and business leaders to act, we need to define what actions are required. It is not enough to scare people - we need to provide a call to arms, not a call to panic.
**Budget Update, May 14, 2008
The petroleum industry says the scrapping of a tax exemption on crude oil derived from gas will create uncertainty for Australia's largest resource project.
The Impact Of Rising Oil Prices On Sydney Suburbs, May 12, 2008
Today's SMH has a prominent article on the impact of rising petrol prices on Sydney suburbs featuring a study by Peter Rickwood of UTS (one of Garry Glazebrook's students by the look of it). ASPO Australia's David Bell gets a mention too.
Ethanol Mandates For Queensland?, May 9, 2008
Queensland opposition leader Lawrence Springborg seems oblivious to the recent backlash against biofuels (or doesn't care - it is not clear which) and is pushing for a mandatory 10% ethanol content in fuel sold in Queensland by 2011. The Queensland government isn't much better, proposing a 5% target instead.
Solving Our Water Problems - Desalination Using Solar Thermal Power, May 2, 2008
In this post I'll look at the Acquasol project and then more generally at water scarcity worldwide and some of the approaches being taken to tackle it.
Policies to Develop a Low Emissions Transport Sector in Australia, April 17, 2008
Professor Garnaut,
Thank you for the opportunity to provide this submission. In the following pages I set out to show that you have not included in your thinking to date the most disruptive factor affecting transport emissions. Given that oil is the lifeblood of our transport system I provide evidence that escalating oil costs and supply constraints are real and critical within short planning horizons.
Coal To Liquids In Australia, April 13, 2008
Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has been talking about gas to liquids (a subject covered here previously) as part of a strategy to address Australia's dependence on imported fuels. The minister has also previously expressed enthusiasm about coal to liquids projects (declaring at a recent CTL and GTL Conference "I regard this industry as the key to securing Australia's energy future"), so in this post I'll have a look at a few CTL projects currently at various stages of development around the country.
National Liquid Fuels Vulnerability Assessment, April 10, 2008
There's good news and bad news contained in Martin Ferguson's keynote address at the "Energy State of the Nation 2008" conference held in Sydney on 18th March, organised by the Australia Energy Alliance.
Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now, March 31, 2008
James Hansen has written an (apparently) open letter to Kevin Rudd, urging that all new coal fired power plants be halted.
Rachel Nolan - Peak Oil Speech in Qld Parliament, March 29, 2008
Speech to Parliament, Ms Rachel Nolan MP - Member for Ipswich, 13th March 2008
Australia and the Export Land Model, Feb 22, 2008
I normally try to be a “Good News” kind of guy, but today I bring bad tidings. Despite my previous claims that Australia is The Place To Be, we are in for some tough times here.
Biomass/Biofuels
**Biofuels and the Rise of Nationalistic Environmentalism, May 16, 2008
Biofuels are a form of nationalistic environmentalism that is creating a foundation on which more extreme nationalists will try to wed the racist tools of yesterday with a version of "sustainability" that will include the destruction of the global poor.
A Visit to the New Choren BTL Plant, May 6, 2008
I had written several articles on biomass gasification in 2006, and when I announced that I would be moving to Scotland in early 2007, I received an e-mail from Dr. David Henson at Choren. David, at that time in Business Development at Choren and now the President of Choren USA, said he had been reading some of my essays, and he extended an invitation to visit the biomass-to-liquids (BTL) plant that Choren was building in Freiberg, Germany.
Jatropha Footnote, April 20, 2008
Following my recent post on the energy situation in India, I received an e-mail from Sreenivas Ghatty, the founder and CEO of Tree Oils India. Sreenivas told me that I was correct that the jatropha situation in India has been overstated, and wanted to provide some facts on where jatropha stands. Sreenivas is involved in trying to establish a jatropha industry.
Termite Power, Mar 2, 2008
It occurred to me that probably the most efficient digester of cellulose in the world is the termite. After all, even cattle can't break down wood.
Ethanol from Coal, Feb 11, 2008
On the subject of using coal as the source of BTUs for ethanol production, there are two things that stand out. First, the current process of using natural gas to produce ethanol makes little sense, since you can use natural gas directly in a CNG vehicle....Second, the cost of energy per BTU is far lower for coal.
Death Rates and Food Prices, Jan 14, 2008
...many people in poor countries are subsistence farmers, and some poor economies are not really connected to the global commodity markets. So this raises the question - how do death rates in poor countries really respond to global commodity markets? One way to explore this is to look at the global food crisis of the early 1970s.
Fermenting the Food Supply, Jan 7, 2008
[I] demonstrate that there are reasonably plausible scenarios for biofuel production growth to cause mass starvation of the global poor, and that this could happen fairly quickly — quite possibly within five years, and certainly well within the life of the existing policy regimes.
The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies, Nov 29, 2007
Biofuel progress, a report from Dubuque, Oct 17, 2007
A Life Cycle Assessment of Energy Products: Environmental Impact Assessment of Biofuels, Sep 23, 2007
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight -An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood, Jul 11, 2007
The Mythical Ethanol Threat, May 29, 2007
How a market for sustainable bio-energy is being developed, May 8, 2007
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane, Mar 23, 2007
Addicted to Oil and Drunk on Ethanol, Mar 11, 2007
US News and World Report looks at Ethanol, Feb 6, 2007
Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification, Oct 26, 2006
Report: Brazilian Ethanol is Sustainable, Oct 11, 2006
Whither Cellulosic Ethanol?, Aug 16, 2006
Climate Change and Electricity From Biomass, Aug 1, 2006
A Conversation with Vinod Khosla, Jul 31, 2006
Vinod Khosla Debunked: Ethanol is NOT the Answer, Jul 25, 2007
E3 Biofuels: Responsible Ethanol, Jun 26, 2006
Lessons from Brazil, May 31, 2006
More on biofuels, May 26, 2006
The more things change, the more they stay the same, Apr 28, 2006
Life in a Grass House, Mar 6, 2006
Book Reviews
Book Review: World Made by Hand, May 1, 2008
When I read James Howard Kunstler's (JHK) book The Long Emergency, it had a profound impact on me. I had been aware for many years that "running out of oil" was a serious matter. After all, I took on the challenge of peak oil in my graduate thesis in 1995. But my focus was more on finding a source that could replace oil as it ran out. Reading The Long Emergency was the first time it really hit me that I was missing a lot of key pieces of the picture.
Book Review: Gusher of Lies, Mar 5, 2008
[Robert Bryce's] newest book, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence, is a must-read for anyone interested in energy issues. Concerning the topic of energy and the many myths associated with energy issues, this is a debunker’s bible.
Brazil
Clarification on Carioca (reported discovery in Santos Basin), April 15, 2008
Reuters reported yesterday:
Haroldo Lima told reporters the find, known as Carioca, could contain 33 billion barrels of oil equivalent, five times the recent giant Tupi discovery. That would further boost Brazil's prospects as an important world oil province and the source of new crude in the Americas.
Tupi, the new kid in town, Nov 22, 2007
What Are Our Alternatives--If Fossil Fuels Are Such a Problem?, Apr 4, 2007
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane, Mar 23, 2007
Report: Brazilian Ethanol is Sustainable, Oct 11, 2006
Lessons from Brazil, May 31, 2006
Cambridge Energy Research Associates
**Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part 1 - There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously, May 21, 2008
How billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, oil banker Matthew Simmons, and many others are suggesting that the world is reaching Peak Oil now, and at the same time, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) headed by Pulitzer Prize writer Daniel Yergin, and others such as Exxon Mobil, are not predicting a Peak in global oil production until circa 2040
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock, Feb 17, 2008
We have been writing for almost 3 years on this site about the privatization of energy data by IHS Energy and the negative impact the lack of accuracy that CERA's historically optimistic claims are having on energy policy. The rebuttals and counteranalysis at TOD to CERAs assertions are too numerous to list.
Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable, Jan 10, 2008
Yergin's predictions, if followed, would have cost someone the opportunity to make a fortune...It would seem to me that CERA's numerous predictions of the fall of the price of oil have been false every time. The chart above speaks volumes about their inability to foresee even the near-term future.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?, Mar 3, 2007
The forecasting record of CERA and other commentators, Dec 12, 2006
Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006
The IHS Energy View of Peak Oil, Dec 15, 2005
A little more on CERA, Sep 6, 2005
Canada
Oil prices or subprime losses?, Dec 22, 2007
Canadian Gas - Decline Sets in, Oct 19, 2007
Kyoto, Canadians, Energy and the Environment, Feb 22, 2007
A Mackenzie Valley Pipe-Dream?, Dec 10, 2006
China
Wildcats & Tigers: China's Oil Acquisition Strategy, May 9, 2007
Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006
Chinese Oil Demand is Surging, Jul 4, 2006
China as the US, or vice versa?, Jan 24, 2006
The Chinese don't think oil is fungible, Aug 25, 2005
Chevron, Oil, and China, Jul 22, 2005
A slightly different view of China, Jul 14, 2005
Shhh...don't tell anyone, but China is Growing..., May 23, 2005
Climate Change
Jamais Cascio: Peak Oil vs. Global Warming, March 27, 2008
Jamais Cascio talks about the P. Kharecha and J. Hansen "resources v. climate change" paper this evening, which was talked about here at TOD a few months ago (link).
Fire and Rain: The Consequences of Changing Climate on Rainfall, Wildfire and Agriculture, Feb 21, 2008
We Won't Stop Global Warming, Feb 19, 2008
At one time I was really worried about Global Warming...why am I no longer seriously worried? Because I have come to the realization that we are never going to pay the price that it would take to halt — much less reverse — Global Warming.
Climate Change — an alternative approach, Nov 21, 2007
The Energy and Environment Round-Up: October 14th 2007, Oct 14, 2007
The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique, Oct 7, 2007
A few reviews of Lomborg's "Cool It", Sep 30, 2007
Sir David King’s View on Peak Oil, Jul 31, 2007
7-7-7: The Launch of Global Warming Inc., July 9, 2007
The Coal Question and Climate Change, Jun 25, 2007
Implications of "Peak Oil" for Atmospheric CO2 and Climate, Mar 22, 2007
Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future, Feb 23, 2007
HOT Hot hot, Feb 13, 2007
IPCC Summary and Fossil Fuel, Feb 12, 2007
Greenland, or why you might care about ice physics, Jan 28, 2007
Peak Oil and Climate Change, Jan 21, 2007
Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007
Dr James Hansen: Can We Still Avoid Dangerous Human-Made Climate Change?, Nov 22, 2006
More Coal Equals More CO2, Oct 22, 2006
Coal
**Richard Heinberg: Coal in the United States, May 30, 2008
With oil and natural gas prices rising and coal prices still relatively low, the return of the US to a greater reliance on coal might seem inevitable. However, several recent reports suggest that coal reserves, which have shrunk dramatically during the past century, may still be overstated.
The Coal Crunch is Materializing, May 1, 2008
In recent days a series of media articles surfaced pointing to a concerning situation in China.
Coal To Liquids In Australia, April 13, 2008
Energy Minister Martin Ferguson has been talking about gas to liquids (a subject covered here previously) as part of a strategy to address Australia's dependence on imported fuels. The minister has also previously expressed enthusiasm about coal to liquids projects (declaring at a recent CTL and GTL Conference "I regard this industry as the key to securing Australia's energy future"), so in this post I'll have a look at a few CTL projects currently at various stages of development around the country.
Hansen to Australian PM: stop coal plants now, March 31, 2008
James Hansen has written an (apparently) open letter to Kevin Rudd, urging that all new coal fired power plants be halted.
The rising fortunes of coal - perhaps, March 27, 2008
It is fairly clear that those who are concerned that carbon dioxide is increasing the world’s temperature are becoming more pro-active in stopping this change.
Ethanol from Coal, Feb 11, 2008
On the subject of using coal as the source of BTUs for ethanol production, there are two things that stand out. First, the current process of using natural gas to produce ethanol makes little sense, since you can use natural gas directly in a CNG vehicle....Second, the cost of energy per BTU is far lower for coal.
Interview with Jean Laherrère, Aug 4, 2007
COAL - The Roundup, July 12, 2007
Another thought on coal supply, Jun 28, 2007
Coal reserves and resources - a gentle cough, Jul 24, 2007
Some history on Coal EROI and UK coal numbers, Jul 9, 2007
The Coal Question and Climate Change, Jun 25, 2007
Coal Mining Reserves - a cautious note, Jun 4, 2007
Peak Coal - Coming Soon?, Apr 4, 2007
Collapse
Peak Oil and Economic Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?, March 28, 2008
This is a guest post by Rob Dietz and Brian Czech. Rob Dietz is the executive director of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE).
Olduvai 2008 movie, Mar 1, 2008
As an addendum to the Olduvai 2008 post there's a movie available that digests the main ideas presented there.
Olduvai revisited 2008, Feb 28, 2008
The Olduvai Gorge Theory was first laid out by Richard Duncan in 1989, when he observed that world energy per capita had been declining for a decade. He developed the concept of Electrical Civilization, the way of life made possible by widespread and abundant electricity and set it to the period in which world energy per capita is above 30% of its all-time peak. This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
Conference Reports
(in reverse chronological order by conference)
Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel
, May 24, 2008
How can humanity transition from a paradigm of continuous expansion and exponential growth to one of sustainable development and stagnation while avoiding violent resource wars as they are likely to erupt over control of the last remaining oil fields?
The ASPO-Italy conference in Torino, May 9, 2008
But it may well be that Italy will be the first industrialized country in the world to experience peak oil for real. Economically weak, strongly dependent on fossil fuels, Italy, despite being known as the "Sun Country", has done nothing exploit renewable energy to weaken her addiction to oil. Italy may well be the miners' canary of peak oil. The national carrier, Alitalia, may be the first major airline in the world to go bankrupt because of high oil prices. Not just Alitalia, but the whole country may go bankrupt if a major supply crisis arrives. It will be an interesting story; stay tuned!
Last Week's EIA Conference, April 18, 2008
Last week, the EIA held a special conference, celebrating the 30th anniversary of their founding. They have held smaller one-day conferences in the past, but this was an expanded conference for the occasion.
ASPO Houston (2007)
|
ASPO Houston - a comment, Oct 23, 2007
Houston ASPO - the Workshop day, Oct 18, 2007 ASPO Houston: Day 1, part 1, Oct 19, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 1 part 2, Oct 21, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 2 part 2, Oct 21, 2007 Houston ASPO Day 2 part 2, Oct 22, 2007 |
ASPO Cork (2007)
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The ASPO Conference -First Morning, Sep 17, 2007
The ASPO Conference - First Afternoon, Sep 18, 2007 ASPO 6: Have we reached the tipping point?, Sep 28, 2007 |
The ASPO Conference - Second Morning, Sep 19, 20074
The ASPO Conference - Final Afternoon, Sep 22, 2007 |
Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference, Feb 1, 2007
Energy Institute Oil Depletion Conference, Nov 10, 2006
ASPO Boston (2006)
ASPO-USA: Geopolitical Implications of Peak Oil Theory, Nov 5, 2006
ASPO 5 (2006, Pisa, Italy)
5th International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion, Jun 21, 2006
St Louis Renewable Energy Conference - Day 1, Oct 12, 2006
St Louis Renewable Energy Conference - Day 2, Oct 14, 2006
ASPO (2005, Denver)
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ASPO-USA Denver Conference Report (Thursday), Nov 11, 2005
ASPO-USA Denver Conference Report (Friday), Nov 12, 2005 |
First morning of the Conference, Nov 10, 2005 |
Petrocollapse Conference - Oct 5th NYC, Sep 22, 2005
Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Saturday), Sep 27, 2005
Peak Oil and Community Solutions Conference (Sunday), Sep 28, 2005
Reviews of the Bartlett Energy Conference, Sep 26, 2005
Cuba
The real lessons of Cuba and peak oil, Jan 29, 2008
People looking at changing to a low fossil fuel use society, whether the change comes about due to necessity (peak oil) or by choice (reducing greenhouse gas emissions), often look about for historical and current examples of countries which had large fossil fuel use and then dropped it somewhat or completely.
Education on Peak Oil
Converging Environmental Crises Teach-In, April 10, 2008
The Ohio State University Department of Public Health is sponsoring a web-based teach-in today, which they would like TOD readers to help publicize.
Science 1101 Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil, Feb 5, 2008
Part 1 of a two-part series.
Science 1101 Part 2: Oil as a Liquid Fuel and Expected Peak Oil Impacts, Feb 5, 2008
Part 2 of a two-part series.
Science 1101 - Petroleum and Peak Oil - Old Version, Jan 29, 2008
A university near where I live plans to add a short unit on "Petroleum and Peak Oil" to their Science 1101 course for freshman who are not science majors...I would appreciate any input or comments TOD folks might have.
Economics and the Economy
**How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?, May 27, 2008
Perhaps more shocking than the amount of fuel our city vehicles use is how much fuel is used to pick up our residents’ trash, sort it at the transfer station, and then haul it 46 miles round trip to a dump that is running out of capacity.
**Dmitry Orlov's Book--Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects, May 29, 2008
The ingredients I like to put in my superpower collapse soup are: a severe and chronic shortage in the production of crude oil (the magic elixir of industrial economies), a severe and worsening trade deficit, a runaway military budget and ballooning foreign debt. The heat and agitation can be provided most efficaciously by a humiliating military defeat and widespread fear of a looming catastrophe.
**Refining 201: The Assay Essay, May 29, 2008
When a refinery purchases crude oil, the key piece of information they need to know about that crude, besides price, is what the crude oil assay looks like. There has been a lot of discussion here at various times about “light sweet”, or “heavy sour”, and how these qualifiers affect the ability of a refiner to turn these crudes into products.
Crude Oil: how high can it go? (19th century whaling as a model for oil depletion and price volatility), May 15, 2008
19th century whaling is today one of the best examples we have of a complete cycle of exploitation of a natural resource.
What would $120 oil mean for the global economy?, May 11, 2008
"The main conclusion of this note is that $120 oil would have profound negative effects on the world economy and global financial markets...Such oil prices would almost certainly precipitate a global recession."
Countdown to $200 oil (3) - no gas tax needed...erm, right..., May 8, 2008
Despite my acknowledging upfront that a gas tax increase is politically deadly, and highly regressive, and my corresponding suggestion to make it part of a plan to (i) directly support those hardest hit by revenue transfers and (ii) use the money raised to invest in alternatives (public transport, renewable energy), [I was sternly scolded on DailyKos for suggesting a gas tax]. ;-)
Herman Daly: Towards A Steady-State Economy, May 5, 2008
On theoildrum.com, we discuss the particulars of our energy supply/consumption situation. Less frequently do we have content outlining potential macro solutions that may be necessary to mitigate problems facing human systems. This is such a post - adapted from a paper from last week's Sustainable Development Commission written by Herman Daly [newdream.org] , who popularized the term "Steady State Economy" over 3 decades ago.
The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come, May 2, 2008
The notion of our standard work week here in America has remained largely the same since 1938. That was the year the Fair Labor Standards Act was passed, standardizing the eight hour work day and the 40 hour work week...So let's stop and do some math...and I'll try to argue for 16 reasons why a four day work week is a good idea.
Thoughts on Demand Destruction: Where Is It?, April 28, 2008
Oil is close to $120/barrel, "peak oil" is everywhere you look, so where’s the demand destruction?
Gail Tverberg's Talk: Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn, April 13, 2008
I have been asked to give a short talk about the expected economic impact of an energy downturn. The talk is to be part of public health program called "Converging Environmental Crises: A Teach-in on Energy, Climate Change, Water, Agriculture and Population."
Can We Stay in the Suburbs?, April 2, 2008
There is little doubt that during that last 60 years we here in America have transformed our manmade landscape in a way that is fundamentally different from any form of human habitation ever known.
Peak Oil and Economic Growth: Where Do We Go From Here?, March 28, 2008
This is a guest post by Rob Dietz and Brian Czech. Rob Dietz is the executive director of the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE).
At $100 Oil - What Can the Scientist Say to the Investor?, Jan 4, 2008
The following post is my cut and paste review of a new paper by Charles Hall, Robert Powers, and William Schoenberg titled "Peak Oil, Investments, and the Economy in an Uncertain Future". This paper, along with 16 others (including 2 by theoildrum.com contributors), will be part of an upcoming book edited by Professor David Pimentel, "Renewable Energy Systems: Environmental and Energetic Issues".
Demand Destruction: Myths and Reality, Jan 1, 2008
The Freezing Point of Industrial Society, Nov 14, 2007
Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 1: A Flashback, Sep 23, 2007
Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 2: Our Current Situation, Sep 25, 2007
Economic Impact of Peak Oil Part 3: What's Ahead?, Oct 1, 2007
The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come, Sep 20, 2007
The Anglo Disease - an introduction, Jun 25, 2007
The Cost of Gasoline around the World, Jun 15, 2007
Gasoline Prices Part II: Long-Term Factors, Jun 13, 2007
Gasoline Prices – Part I: Immediate Causes, Jun 8, 2007
Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007
Interesting Economics, Jul 1, 2006
Miles Data Predicts Big Economic Slowdown, Oct 24, 2005
Electricity and the Grid
The U. S. Electric Grid: Will It Be Our Undoing?, May 11, 2008
Quite a few people believe that if there is a decline in oil production, we can make up much of the difference by increasing our use of electricity--more nuclear, wind, solar voltaic, geothermal or even coal. The problem with this model is that it assumes that our electric grid will be working well enough for this to happen. It seems to me that there is substantial doubt that this will be the case.
US Electricity Supply Vulnerabilities, Dec 6, 2007
Failure of Networked Systems, Dec 14, 2007
Electricity Legislation and Politics
**Let's Discuss: H.R. 6107, the American Energy Independence and Price Reduction Act, May 23, 2008
This is an excerpted letter from Members of Congress Don Young and Roscoe Bartlett asking for other MoC's to support and/or co-sponsor H.R. 6107, an Important Step to American Energy Independence and Price Reductions for Consumers.
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett's Peak Oil Special Order Speech May 1, 2008, May 5, 2008
Comments on the Clean Energy Tax Stimulus Act of 2008, as well.
An Open Letter to Our Next President about Energy Policy, April 30, 2008
Mr. or Madam President,
Vice President Dick Cheney once famously quipped "The American way of life is non-negotiable." I submit that while our next president might not be so brash in stating this, the root of our energy problems can be traced to this attitude. But, nature doesn't negotiate. It doesn't appear that any of the remaining presidential candidates understand the basis of the problems we face: Oil is a depleting, finite resource - albeit one crucial for the "American way of life."
McCain's Gas Pains: Gas "Tax Holidays" A Good Idea?, April 15, 2008
Discussion on the value of a gas tax holiday.
McCain wants a gas tax "holiday." It's a no-brainer, right?, April 15, 2008
Atrocious policies but devious politics from McCain.
Maryland Legislation Taps Energy Efficiency as the "First Fuel", April 9, 2008
Governor O'Malley's Energy Efficiency Bills Are Passed by Legislature.
The State of the (Energy) Union (and a SOTU open thread), Jan 23, 2007
Energy Overview
The Scales are Balanced, April 14, 2008
Here then is a chart-fest for all of you, showing the balance between countries who expanded their production compared to the previous year and those whose production declined.
The Record Falls - January 2008 is the New World Record for Crude Oil (plus Condensate) Production, April 11, 2008
The EIA's newest International Petroleum Monthly shows World C+C production for January was 74,466,000 barrels per day, eclipsing the heretofore peak of May 2005 by 168,000 barrels per day.
Oil Rises, Gasoline Climbs to a Record, on U.S. Supply Decline, April 9, 2008
Bumpy Crude Oil Plateau in the Rear View Mirror, April 4, 2008
Which countries are increasing in oil production? Which are decreasing? How is this changing? Can we expect that the increasing ones will continue to increase in 2008? Does the megaprojects data give any insight into the future increases of growing countries?
Oilwatch Monthly - April 2008, April 21, 2008
Shell Energy Futures, Jan 25, 2008
Below the fold is the full text of an email sent by Jeroen van der Veer, the CEO of Shell, to all Shell employees. It is a clear acknowledgement of the reality of peak oil, climate change and of the need for comprehensive policy changes, and is worth reading in full.
Energy Technology
Shell's Shale Plans...? (or Why I Am an Oil Shale Skeptic), May 12, 2008
It isn't hard to see why I am an oil shale skeptic.
We're Off To See The Wizard - Storing Energy Using Ammonia, April 29, 2008
There were a couple of small Australian solar power projects that I left out of my look at solar thermal power a little while ago, as I thought they were worthy of separate consideration.
The first of these is being put together by a South Australian company called Wizard Power, which is trying to commercialise research from the Australian National University (ANU) - a solar concentrator dish and a closed loop thermochemical energy storage system using ammonia.
It's Time for Summer Gasoline, April 19, 2008
Just what is summer gasoline? Twice a year, in the fall and in the spring, you hear about the seasonal gasoline transition. However, most people probably don't understand what this actually means.
RFK and Garbage Trucks: Two Measures of Success, April 12, 2008
Vincent V. in NYC writes: Garbage trucks are a major source of urban air pollution. One truck pollutes about as much as 350 cars. NYC has been moving to switch utility vehicles to hybrid tech (w/city buses & taxis), but not with garbage trucks.
Cracking shale and why horizontal wells are slick, April 10, 2008
This past week, courtesy of Leanan and Gail it seems that there have been more than the usual number of stories on natural gas developments and the potentials of formations such as the Utica shale, the Haynesville shale, and the Marcellus shale.
Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power, April 2, 2008
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Cogeneration At Home: Ceramic Fuel Cells And Bloom Energy, March 30, 2008
An Australian company working in [cogeneration] called Ceramic Fuel Cells was in the news recently after landing a $240 million deal with Dutch energy company Nuon to supply 50,000 CHP units by 2014.
The Cogeneration Stopgap, Feb 26, 2008
In the end, natural gas will be too expensive to burn just for space heat. The obvious long-term solution for most areas is a combination of superinsulation and passive solar design; if you need no fuel, you don't care how much it costs. [Cogeneration is an interim measure.]
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans, Mar 26, 2006
Overview of ocean energy technology, particularly OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Cracking oil is not a funny business, Mar 26, 2006
Getting gas from Crude, Mar 12, 2006
Burning coal in place or in-situ gasification, Mar 4, 2006
Clean fuel from dirty coal?, Feb 26, 2006
How carbon dioxide improves recovery, Feb 12, 2005
Coal rank and thoughts on EROEI, Feb 5, 2006
Surface Mining of coal, Jan 29, 2006
Longwall Mining of coal, Jan 22, 2006
A little more on coal mining, Jan 14, 2006
How big an apple, Sir Isaac?, Dec 10, 2005
Finding the field can be a noisy business, Dec 3, 2005
Logging a well, does not mean a two by four between the eyes, Nov 20, 2005
So, if I grow a crack under my neighbors fence, is it still my oil?, Nov 5, 2005
A workover is not the same as a sleep-over, Oct 22, 2005
In coal mines, the Penitent really was, Oct 15, 2005
Is this post rigged, or some information on oil platforms, Oct 2, 2005
Taking a turn for the better - or directional drilling again, Sep 25, 2005
What the eye doesn't see, the heart doesn't grieve over, Sep 17, 2005
Carbonates are not a drink, Sep 2, 2005
An oil production is more than turning a tap, Aug 27, 2005
Pressure, surely not in the oil business?, Aug 13, 2005
Running casing is not a race, Aug 6, 2005
Kelly isn't always an Irishman, Jul 30, 2005
Here's mud in your eye, Jul 24, 2005
Geopolitical Feedback Loops in Peak Oil, Oct 3, 2007
On Energy Transitions Past and Future
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2856 (Aug 8, 2007)
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3442 (Dec 28, 2007)
World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline, Nov 10, 2007
USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year, Oct 26, 2007
Questions and Answers on Energy Issues, Oct 21, 2007
Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth, Aug 24, 2007
"Energy Resources and Our Future" - Speech by Hyman Rickover in 1957, Jun 30, 2007
What Are Our Alternatives--If Fossil Fuels Are Such a Problem?, Apr 4, 2007
That cubic mile, Feb 28, 2007
Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007
The World according to Gave, Sep 28, 2006
European Union
European Gas Security: The Future of Natural Gas, May 13, 2008
This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day.
Andris Piebalgs' priority number one, April 8, 2008
Andris Piebalgs : getting a sense of proportion, March 29, 2008
Andris Piebalgs continues this Friday his blogging on bio-fuels, addressing some of the concerns expressed by the readers of the last blog-entry.
A New Energy Policy for Europe, Jan 12, 2007
Revisiting the EU Energy Plan - and its coverage, Jan 13, 2007
Financial Markets
Oil prices or subprime losses?, Dec 22, 2007
So they all knew it was a bubble, now?, Aug 18, 2007
The Resurgence of Risk "A Primer on the Developing Credit Crunch", Aug 14, 2007
Credit markets: 'Don't panic', they beg, Aug 10, 2007
Financial bubble - who will say that the emperor is naked?, May 20, 2007
Gasoline
The Cost of Gasoline around the World, Jun 15, 2007
Gasoline Prices Part II: Long-Term Factors, Jun 13, 2007
Gasoline Prices – Part I: Immediate Causes, Jun 8, 2007
International Energy Agency
Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, Dec 7, 2007
IEA: oil demand has surpassed supply, Dec 6, 20071
Does the latest IEA number matter?, Dec 3, 2007
Peak oil: BP, Conoco CEOs say it's here - also IEA's Fatih Birol really freaks out, Nov 11, 2007
IEA boss denies and confirms peak oil in same breath, Jul 12, 2007
The International Energy Association's Medium-Term Oil Market Report, Jul 9, 2007
IEA: without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015, Jun 29, 2007
India
The Energy Scene in India, April 9, 2008
As I traveled through India on a recent business trip, the topic of energy was constantly on my mind (as it is every time I travel). I found out some interesting things about jatropha, toured a sugarcane ethanol plant, found a wind farm in the middle of nowhere, and encountered a native ethanol skeptic. Here are my impressions.
Interviews
**Ethanol's Energy Balance with Tad Patzek, May 25, 2008
**Peak Oil Media - Our president talking about contemporary energy matters, May 14, 2008
Boone Pickens: There's No End in Sight for the Rise in Crude Oil Prices, Oct 18, 2007
Peak Oil Media 9-6-07, Oct 6, 2007
Interview with Jean Laherrère, Aug 4, 2007
Peak Oil Media, Jun 17, 20076
GPM Link Featuring Nate Hagens on "The Reality Report" with Jason Bradford along with Some Other Oldies and Goodies, May 4, 2007
Megan Quinn of Community Solution: What Can We Learn from Cuba's Response to a Lack of Resources?, Feb 27, 2007
An Interview with Michael Klare, Jan 27, 2007
A Conversation with Vinod Khosla, Jul 31, 2006
British MP interviews David Strahan, author "The Last Oil Shock", Jul 16, 2007
An Interview with Trilby Lundberg (or, Prof. Goose May Have a New Sworn Enemy), Jul 11, 2007
A Conversation with Matt Simmons, Nov 15, 2006
Interview with Chris Cook, Originator of the Iranian Oil Bourse, Aug 20, 2006
Grist Interview with Michael Pollan, Jun 1, 2006
Jason Bradford/Stuart Staniford interview, Dec 14, 2005
Grist Interview with Matt Simmons, Nov 7, 2005
Roscoe Bartlett Interview, Oct 14, 2005
Interview with Bill from Time's Up, Oct 4, 2005
A Conversation with Richard Heinberg, Sep 30, 2005
Interview with Mayor Nagin of NOLA, Sep 2, 2005
Kunstler radio interview, Jun 10, 2005l
Mainstream Media
If you think the oil situation is bad.., April 26, 2008
It's hard for oil not to be in the news at the moment, but we haven't seen coverage like this very often. This article by Jad Mouawad is from the New York Times, but today it was published as a full page feature in the The Age Business section in Melbourne:
Shell Sponsoring Peak Oil Communication?, April 2, 2008
Click on the image to the right to download the .pdf of a full page "advert" which appeared in both Time and Fortune magazines over Easter. It was written by Jeremy Leggett, the prominent peak oil and climate change commentator and proponent of renewable energy (also Chairman of Solarcentury).
Mexico
Wow. Peak Oil Is on The History Channel. (or, the "Megadisasters: Oil Apocalypse" Open Thread), Nov 13, 2007
£1 per Litre Petrol Drives Peak Oil on Mainstream TV, Nov 8, 2007
Boone Pickens: There's No End in Sight for the Rise in Crude Oil Prices, Oct 18, 2007
Mexico: A Nation-State Dissolves?, Sep 10, 2007
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production, Feb 7, 2007
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers, Jan 27, 2007
Middle East
Bread and Oil: Rising Food Prices and the Middle East, Mar 3, 2008
The use of food crops for biofuels is one of the key factors driving a dramatic increase in the global price of cereals. As Stuart Staniford demonstrated here in the past few weeks, this trend is set to intensify. This article will look at the potential implications of rising wheat prices for countries in the Middle East, taking Egypt and Morocco as examples.
World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008, Feb 17, 2008
Multimedia
**Eco-Driving promoted by the European Commission", June 1, 2008
But before going out for a demonstration against who ever you may think is responsible for high fuel prices, there are a few things you can do to ease the pain: it's called Eco-Driving.
**Peak Oil on Dutch Television", May 26, 2008
Last Friday our blogger Rembrandt was interviewed about Peak Oil on the Dutch Television show NOVA. About the rising price of crude in light of his upcoming book 'The Permanent Oil Crisis', the first Peak Oil book to be published in Dutch in the beginning of June.
**Hirsch on CNBC: Peak oil problem "as massive as one can possibly imagine", May 14, 2008
Robert Hirsch, author of Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management (a.k.a. the Hirsch Report), appeared on CNBC this morning. He said flat out that new technologies and new drilling won't solve the peak oil problem, and that we should expect $12-15/gallon gasoline followed by rationing.
**Peak Oil Media - Our president talking about contemporary energy matters, May 14, 2008
Peak Oil Media: Food v. (Bio)fuel, Fast Money saying "It's Supply, Stupid" and Cramer on Ending the Ethanol Mandate, May 3, 2008
you will find two youtube videos that are worth your time. The first is from Fast Money [fastmoney.cnbc.com] (CNBC) yesterday entitled "It's Supply, Stupid." After a bit of discussion on the panel, Joe Terranova provides a really nice discussion (about 4 mins) of the reasoning behind why the price oil is rising: supply and demand. Also included is an excellent graph on biofuels.
James Howard Kunstler: Colbert Appearance and a Response to Critics, May 3, 2008
Kunstler: I don't intend to mount a "defense" against all your complaints, but would like to make a few brief points.
Olduvai 2008 movie, Mar 1, 2008
As an addendum to the Olduvai 2008 post there's a movie available that digests the main ideas presented there.
ASPO 6 Ireland DVDs and ASPO-USA 2007 Houston Conference DVDs, Mar 1, 2008
In 2007, there were two conferences by Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) groups:
ASPO 6 - World ASPO Groups - Cork, Ireland - September 2007
ASPO-USA - Houston, Texas - October 2007
Natural Gas
European Gas Security: The Future of Natural Gas, May 13, 2008
This is the talk I was honored to deliver to ASPO Italy on 3rd May 2008 at their annual conference in Turin. 24 slides below the fold plus narrative of what I said on the day.
Natural Gas - the future of fuel ?, May 2, 2008
The ABC's "7:30 Report" last night had a look at the large amount of optimism that many people have regarding Australia's natural gas reserves - "As world oil prices skyrocket, experts warn Australia must find an alternative source of fuel. Some argue a cheaper, greener solution is right under the nation's nose: natural gas."
Short-term supplies of natural gas, April 2, 2008
And my tiny mind asks, where, with a 20-inch (50 cm) snowstorm does one find this source to supply a city of 1,148,800 inhabitants in the short term?
North American Natural Gas Production and EROI Decline, Feb 27, 2008
Creating an Energy Transition Plan away from natural gas requires at least a rough forecast of future production. Two very different forecasts for North American natural gas exist.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?, Dec 20, 2007
The European Gas Market, Dec 11, 2007
Natural Gas and Complacency, Dec 4, 2007
LNG To The Rescue?, Nov 27, 2006
Canadian Gas - Decline Sets in, Oct 19, 2007
A Mackenzie Valley Pipe-Dream?, Dec 10, 2006
The North American Red Queen: Our Natural Gas Treadmill, Nov 9, 2006
Questions About the World's Biggest Natural Gas Field, Jun 9, 2006
Nigeria
Nigeria: Energy Infrastructure Firestorm
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2692 (Jul 8, 2007)
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2348 (Mar 11, 2007)
Nigeria: A Closer Look at "Above Ground Factors", Jun 21, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2687
Nuclear
**Andris Piebalgs: Nuclear and the EU's Energy Policy, May 19, 2008
Without taboos, Andris lays down the advantages of Nuclear energy that have put it at the core of the Commission's New Energy Policy for Europe.
Continuing the Nuclear Debate, April 3, 2008
We have run several articles recently on nuclear power and without fail they have stimulated enthusiastic debate. This is an opportunity to continue that debate.
Nuclear Britain, Jan 15, 2008
...considering the nuclear cliff, has the decision come too late to maintain the nuclear contribution?
New Nuclear Reactors For The UK: Is This Really A Good Idea?, Jan 1, 2008
Uranium Depletion and Nuclear Power: Are We at Peak Uranium?, Mar 21, 2007
Is Nuclear Power a Viable Option for Our Energy Needs?, Mar 1, 2007
Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2806 (Jul 24, 2007)
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2164 (Jan 11, 2007)
Nuclear Power for the Oilsands, May 26, 2007
How Uranium Depletion Affects the Economics of Nuclear Power, Apr 18, 2007
Oil Forecasts and Peak Oil Predictions
**Peak Oil Overview - March 2008 (Pdf and Powerpoint available), May 25, 2008
Preliminary data regarding oil production through December 2007 is now available from the US Energy Information Administration, so it is a good time to put together an updated summary of where we are now with respect to peak oil.
**Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows, May 27, 2008
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
**Peak Oil - Whom to Believe? Part 1 - There's Plenty of Oil, CERAiously, May 21, 2008
How billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens, oil banker Matthew Simmons, and many others are suggesting that the world is reaching Peak Oil now, and at the same time, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) headed by Pulitzer Prize writer Daniel Yergin, and others such as Exxon Mobil, are not predicting a Peak in global oil production until circa 2040
**Why oil costs over $120 per barrel, May 30, 2008
With oil reaching $135 / barrel, Oil Drum readership exceeding 30,000 unique visitors per day and many wild stories circulating in the MSM as to why oil prices are so high this post strives to explain why oil prices are rising exponentially.
$100 a barrel: Going, Going...., May 6, 2008
In January 2006 Phoenix emailed me a spreadsheet that predicted an oil price of $100/barrel by 2008, followed by an ongoing geometric rise in oil prices...Here is the story of how Phoenix became Peak Oil aware and generated his Price Calculator.
Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates, Mar 11, 2008
When Will Russia (and the World) Decline?, Nov 5, 2007
Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? and Other Oil Supply Insights, Oct 9, 2007
...To Grandmother's House We Go: Peak Oil Is Here, Sep 26, 2007
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates, Aug 30, 2007
World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia - Update Aug 2007, Aug 22, 2007
World Crude Oil Production Forecast using Current Fields and Future Megaprojects, Dec 28, 2006
Oil Sands
Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 2, Sep 9, 2007
Tar Sands: The Oil Junkie's Last Fix, Part 1, Aug 25, 2007
For this week's article, I collaborated with energy journalist Roel Mayer, a freelance writer on earth, energy and economy, based in Canada. He was also the one who coined "The Law of Receding Horizons." For those who missed my previous articles on receding horizons, it is a simple concept: as the cost of energy rises, the cost of everything else made with energy (like building materials) also rises. So an energy project which was expected to be profitable when energy costs were x amount higher than today, turns out to still be uneconomical when you get there.
Nuclear Power for the Oilsands, May 26, 2007
Peak Everything Else
Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories, Feb 16, 2008
These results indicate that, in the coming decades (or even years), we may see the reversal of some of the growth trends that we came to see as the natural order of things. Peaking and decline is expected not just for fossil fuels, as shown before by Laherrere, but also for most mineral commodities (see a recent study by Bardi and Pagani). These are just subsystems of a vaster system that may collapse in the coming years according to the LTG models.
The future of mining machines, Jan 31, 2008
Ugo Bardi produced a rather grim look into the future with his recent piece on the Universal Mining Machine, and the various considerations of what we are going to do as the major mining sources of the different ores that are required start to run out. I would rather like to take another tack, and comment instead on the need that the mining industry will face, at some point soon, in having to significantly change the way in which it mines and processes ore.
The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies, Nov 29, 2007
Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007
Peak Minerals, Oct 15, 2007
Peak Oil Theory
Oil Megaproject Update (July 2008), July 5, 2008
This is an update on the Wikipedia Oil Megaproject Database maintained by the Oil Megaprojects task force (Ace, Stuart Staniford, myself and many others). The database contains now more than 425 separate entries and is growing everyday. Despite the database growth, the outcome seems to become more pessimistic with time.
Wave/Geothermal - Energy Return on Investment (EROI) (Part 6 of 6), May 14, 2008
This is the final piece of a series on Energy Return on Investment from Professor Charles Hall [esf.edu] 's EROI Workshop at SUNY. Today's papers outline the energy technologies of wave and geothermal power.
The Energy Return of (Industrial) - Passive Solar, PV, Wind and Hydro (5 of 6), April 29, 2008
Below is 4th in a series of installments by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students attempting to update the 'balloon graph' of EROI x Scale for fossil and renewable energy sources with help from theoildrum.com readership.
A Real Time Example of Energy Quality- How Wind Turbines are Subsidized by Fossil Fuels, April 28, 2008
Global oil depletion is not immune to the Law of Receding Horizons, the Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns, nor it seems to the Law of Unintended Consequences. The Grangemouth refinery shutdown has apparently caused work on a new wind farm in Scotland to shut down for lack of diesel fuel. Though at this stage this is a short-term snafu, it's a real time example of how lack of systems analysis of our energy problem will lead to unanticipated problems.
The Bakken Formation: How Much Will It Help?, April 26, 2008
The Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana has generated a lot of buzz in the past year. Reserve numbers in the billions of barrels, even tens or hundreds of billions show up in press reports and blogs. Now the USGS has weighed in with a comprehensive assessment of the resource. So just how much will this oil accumulation help the world's largest importer of oil?
The Energy Return of Nuclear Power (EROI on the Web-Part 4 of 6), April 22, 2008
This is 4th in a continuing series of articles by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students, describing the energy statistic, "EROI" for various fuels.
Hydrates updated, April 16, 2008
Jean Laherrere discusses updates to his papers on hydrates.
Unconventional Oil: Tar Sands and Shale Oil - EROI on the Web, Part 3 of 6, April 15, 2008
This is 3rd in a series of 5 guest posts by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry describing the energy statistic, "EROI" for various fuels.
EROI on the Web part 2 of 6, (Provisional Results Summary, Imported Oil, Natural Gas), April 8, 2008
This is the second of a five part series on net energy research resulting from Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students during last semesters "EROI Sweatshop". While it is still in draft form, it is hoped (with some help from TOD readers) to be refined and directed into the formal peer review literature.
EROI Post - A Response from Charlie Hall, April 7, 2008
On Tuesday we ran Part 1 of a 5 part series of EROI posts by Professor Charles Hall and his energy students. Professor Hall (to my surprise) read through all theoildrum comments and sent me an email with his responses and some summary comments, which I have posted below.
Why EROI Matters (Part 1 of 6), April 1, 2008
This is the first of a five part series of guest posts by Professor Charles Hall of the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and his students and collaborative researchers
The Disconnect Between Oil Reserves and Production, Mar 6, 2008
If a person looks at published oil reserves, it is easy to get the idea that there are huge amounts of oil left to be extracted. One would think that there is no way that peak oil should be a concern. Once we look at the situation a more closely, we discover that published oil reserves really aren't all that helpful in telling us about future production. In fact, the evidence suggests that oil shortages may not be many years away.
Whither The Bumpy Plateau?, Feb 25, 2008
Review of recent oil production figures.
Peak Oil and "The Limits to Growth": two parallel stories, Feb 16, 2008
These results indicate that, in the coming decades (or even years), we may see the reversal of some of the growth trends that we came to see as the natural order of things. Peaking and decline is expected not just for fossil fuels, as shown before by Laherrere, but also for most mineral commodities (see a recent study by Bardi and Pagani). These are just subsystems of a vaster system that may collapse in the coming years according to the LTG models.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data, Jan 3, 2008
Shedding Light on the Question of Reserves Growth, Dec 7, 2007
Application of the Dispersive Discovery Model, Nov 27, 2007
The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar, Oct 10, 2007
An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model, Jun 27, 2007
Finding Needles in a Haystack, Jun 27, 2007
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results), Apr 27, 2007
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology), Apr 25, 2007
The Shock Model (Part II), Apr 17, 2007
Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection, Apr 9, 2007
The Shock Model: A Review (Part I), Apr 5, 2007
Does the Peak Oil "Myth" Just Fall Down? -- Our Response to CERA, Feb 4, 2007
Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle", Jul 13, 2007
In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method, Jun 24, 2007
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?, Mar 22, 2007
Predicting the Past: The Hubbert Linearization, Mar 12, 2007
World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection, Oct 10, 2006
Update on Megaprojects, Dec 10, 2007
How to Address Contrarian Arguments - Part I, Nov 23, 2006
How to address Contrarian Arguments - Part II, Dec 24, 2006
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important?, Aug 4, 2006
Besides water, energy is the most important substance for life on the planet. This post explores what net energy is, why its important and how its principles may impact the future organization of our society.
Using Hubbert Method on EIA Data - The Tiger Chasing its Tail?, Jun 13, 2006
Hubbert Linearization Analysis of the Top Three Net Oil Exporters, Jan 27, 2006
We're In Deep Water, Oct 7, 2005
4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares?, Sep 6, 2005
Population, Agriculture and Food Supply
A protein possibility for the "oil we eat:" the in-vitro meat beast!, May 8, 2008
While I don't want to restart the debate about "reversalists", I think it's worth looking at where a large amount of the grain we produce goes - meat production.
Food to 2050, Mar 10, 2008
This post continues an exercise I began a month or so ago of trying to figure out how civilization could be moved to a mostly sustainable footing by 2050, while still being recognizable as civilization, and in particular allowing some continued level of economic growth between now and then, especially in the developing countries.
The Next Agriculture?, Mar 7, 2008
This is a guest post by John Michael Greer, who blogs at The Archdruid Report. John is the Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America (AODA) and has been active in the alternative spirituality movement for more than 25 years, and is the author of a dozen books, including "The Druidry Handbook" (Weiser, 2006). He lives in Ashland, Oregon.
USA Grain Exports - Where to, how much?, Mar 5, 2008
This post looks at the role the USA plays in global grain (wheat, corn, sorghum) and soybean (soya bean) trade, since the USA is to a large extent the world's breadbasket and there are concerns over this role in the light of the current corn-to-ethanol expansion. The article begins by looking, very briefly, at how similar concerns were raised about 20 years ago, due to the potential effects of global warming on US grain production.
Bread and Oil: Rising Food Prices and the Middle East, Mar 3, 2008
The use of food crops for biofuels is one of the key factors driving a dramatic increase in the global price of cereals. As Stuart Staniford demonstrated here in the past few weeks, this trend is set to intensify. This article will look at the potential implications of rising wheat prices for countries in the Middle East, taking Egypt and Morocco as examples.
The Fallacy of Reversibility, Jan 21, 2008
...[many peak oilers think that] we are going to have to give up the big combine harvesters, the thunderous power of 275 horsepower tractors, and instead we will have to return to small-scale, hand-labor organic production...but my recent explorations of food prices and biofuels have sharpened up my conviction that the thinking behind this position is mistaken.
Death Rates and Food Prices, Jan 14, 2008
...many people in poor countries are subsistence farmers, and some poor economies are not really connected to the global commodity markets. So this raises the question - how do death rates in poor countries really respond to global commodity markets? One way to explore this is to look at the global food crisis of the early 1970s.
Does Less Energy Mean More Farmers?, Dec 21, 2007
Food Price Inflation, Dec 17, 2007
World Energy to 2050: A Half Century of Decline, Nov 10, 2007
Six steps to "getting" the global ecological crisis, Nov 4, 2007
Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007
Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room, May 7, 2007
Revisiting the Olduvai Theory, Mar 6, 2006
Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference, Feb 1, 2007
More thoughts on ethanol after the State of the Union...what will farmers do, and have they read the research?, Jan 29, 2007
Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy, Nov 28, 2006
Preparedness and Transition
**Future Scenarios: Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change, May 26, 2008
The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios:
**A Twelve-Step Plan to End Oil Addiction, May 24, 2008
Our addiction to oil has been bad for us for a long time. We’ve paid a high price for it in terms of high greenhouse gas emissions and cities choked by cars. But now we can’t afford our regular fix any more. So here’s what we need to do to conquer our addiction. It won’t be easy, but it will be worthwhile — and besides, we don’t really have a choice.
**Biomimicry and Ocean Generated Energy: Are Humans Smarter Than Sea Sponges?, May 25, 2008
The field of biomimicry (also called "biomimetics" and "bionics") is a new one that has gathered an increasing amount of attention in recent years, with advocates promoting these types of designs as being efficient ways to harness natural resources and to use them in a sustainable way.
A Sustainable Futures Fund for a Fuel and Climate Emergency, Mar 8, 2008
This is a guest post by Garry Glazebrook, who is an urban transport consultant and urban planning lecturer at the University of Technology, Sydney. The Sustainable Futures Fund is described in the Australian context, but with our population of 21 million and a local currency approaching 1:1 with the US dollar, the figures suggested here could be considered comparable with those required in a moderate size state in the USA.
Powering Civilization to 2050, Jan 28, 2008
This post is the start of an attempt to sketch out what an integrated solution to the world's food, energy, land, climate, and economy problems might look like. My basic goal is to get to a somewhat defensible story of how civilization could get to 2050 in reasonable shape, despite the problems of climate change, peak oil, global population growth, etc.
Our World Is Finite: The Implications of Resource Limitations, Oct 24, 2007
Prepping for Peak: How Fast Can We Change?, Oct 14, 2007
Poverty of Vision, Oct 5, 2007
Review: How Can We Outlive Our Way of Life?, Oct 2, 2007
Relocalization: A Strategic Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil, Jun 6, 2007
A Conversation on Energy Issues, Dec 21, 2006
More Sustainlane: U.S. Cities' Preparedness for an Oil Crisis, Apr 3, 2006
Lessons from Brazil, May 1, 2006
Press Releases
**Future Scenarios: Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change, May 26, 2008
The Australian co-founder of the permaculture concept David Holmgren has today launched a new global scenario planning website, Future Scenarios:
Oil Price Closes Above $100 a Barrel - New Peak Oil Press Release, Feb 20, 2008
This is another press release about $100 barrel oil. It is fairly similar to the one we sent out in January when oil hit an intraday high of $100 barrel.
President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply: The ISEOF/TOD Press Release, Jan 18, 2008
Oil Price Touches $100 a Barrel; Signal of Pending Oil Shortages Ignored, Jan 6, 2008
Psychology
**What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?, May 26, 2008
So the point is to jump so far out there - $100/gal - that there is no question that 99% of us would have to make some serious changes.
**A Twelve-Step Plan to End Oil Addiction, May 24, 2008
Our addiction to oil has been bad for us for a long time. We’ve paid a high price for it in terms of high greenhouse gas emissions and cities choked by cars. But now we can’t afford our regular fix any more. So here’s what we need to do to conquer our addiction. It won’t be easy, but it will be worthwhile — and besides, we don’t really have a choice.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized, Mar 9, 2008
Cassandra's story is very old: she was cursed that she would always tell the truth and never be believed. But it is also a very modern story and, perhaps, the quintessential Cassandras of our age are the group of scientists who prepared and published in 1972 the book titled "The Limits to Growth".
Six steps to "getting" the global ecological crisis, Nov 4, 2007
Living for the Moment while Devaluing the Future, Jun 1, 2007
A Letter to My Brother: Peak Oil in Greater Detail, Apr 8, 2007
Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future, Feb 23, 2007
Russia
Russia's Oil Production is About to Peak, April 24, 2008
Since 2005, the Russian oil industry has been in constant turmoil. Production growth has also slowed down significantly maybe as a result.
The Evolving situation between Russia, Belarus and Azerbaijan, Jan 9, 2007
More on the Azerbaijan, Belarus, Russia oil and gas confrontations, Jan 11, 2007
Of China, Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and "them again", Nov 15, 2006
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved), May 8, 2008
Analysts Neil McMahon and Ben Dell from Bernstein Research are back [online.wsj.com] with more analysis. As promised, they have returned with a study purporting to show that Ghawar is not rapidly depleting because it is not sinking. Using the the technique of Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR) Interferometry, which is capable of measuring millimeter vertical movements via satellite, they found not subsidence but actually a slight rise in one area....Alas, they have misplaced Ghawar by a few miles, rendering their interpretations misplaced as well. This can't end well.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah, March 31, 2008
NOW SHOWING: a movie on the drilling of Uthmaniyah. Using a set of wells in a productive (but now rather depleted) slice of this part of the Saudi oil field of Ghawar, it is possible to deduce to drilling sequence of these wells using the identifiers assigned to the wells as they are drilled. Given a few known dates for well placement, a timeline for overall development can be constructed and displayed as an animation.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Reserves Propaganda, Mar 4, 2008
# In 2004, Saudi Aramco stated that its oil initially in place (OIIP) has been growing steadily since 1982. There is considerable doubt about the validity of this increase, given the lack of new oil discoveries and the unusual nature of its steady continuous increase.
Intro to Satellite Sleuthing 101: Finding Haradh III, Feb 29, 2008
Everybody talks about the Saudi Arabian Oil Miracle, but most seem to be saying the same things. And those things usually consist of quotes or statistics provided by Saudi Aramco. This presents us with the following dilemma: if we believe what they say, why don't we just quit worrying about whether or not their oil will continue to flow?
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data, Jan 3, 2008
The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar, Oct 10, 2007
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates, Aug 30, 2007
Depletion Levels in Ghawar, May 15, 2007
Simple mathematics - The Saudi reserves, GOSPs and water injection, Apr 9, 20076
The Status of North Ghawar, Apr 7, 2007
Of Oil Supply trains and a thought on Ain Dar, Apr 3, 2007
Saudi production laid bare, Mar 19, 2007
A Nosedive Toward the Desert, Mar 8, 2007
Saudi Arabia and that $1000 bet, Mar 7, 2007
Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006, Mar 2, 2007
And how is Saudi Arabia getting on? (or more evidence of a deteriorating situation...), Jan 3, 2007
Solar
**Solar Islands: A new concept for low-cost solar energy at very large scale, May 20, 2008
This is a guest post by Dr. Thomas Hinderling. Dr. Hinderling is the CEO of CSEM Centre Suisse d'Electronique et de Microtechnique SA. One of CSEM's most exciting projects concerns the design of a new class of large scale concentrating solar power systems, called Solar Islands
The Oil Drum (website)
Nielsen: The Oil Drum is the #4 Sustainability Site on the Web, May 2, 2008
The Oil Drum was recently ranked by Nielsen as the #4 sustainability site on the web (behind TreeHugger, WorldChanging, and Biopact).
Transportation
Four Billion Cars in 2050?, Feb 18, 2008
I want to continue surveying the terrain at a very high level and look at the automobile sector under the rough assumptions I outlined in Powering Civilization to 2050. In particular, how many cars might we expect by 2050, and how can we possibly power them, given that there will be less oil, not more, by that time. I think most readers would intuit that if society was wealthier in 2050, as I postulated, then if they possibly could, the planet's citizens would tend to drive more, not less.
Alternative Wind Power Experiments - SkySails and Airborne Wind Turbines, Jan 13, 2008
In this post I'll look at 2 approaches that have received some attention in the press recently - attaching kite sails to ships and airborne wind turbines.
Aviation and Oil Depletion
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2858 (Aug 9, 2007)
http://europe.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/11/45514/799 (Dec 19, 2006)
Local Rail - An Overview, Jul 6, 2007
Electrified Rail: An Overlooked Mitigation Strategy for Peak Oil, Oct 20, 2006
USA 2034: A Look Back at the 25th Anniversary Year, Oct 26, 2007
Extending the Reach of Regional Rail, Sep 2, 2006
Miles Data Predicts Big Economic Slowdown, Oct 24, 2005
United Kingdom
Forties - Grangemouth: the failure of a complex tightly coupled system, April 27, 2008
The sequence of events (covered here on The Oil Drum previously) that led to the Forties Pipeline closure on 27 April 2008 began in 2005 when BP, currently the UK's largest company, sold Innovene, their Grangemouth refinery subsidiary to Ineos. Ineos is privately owned petrochemicals company that has grown from nothing since its formation in 1998, fueled by debt reported to be €9 billion.
Grangemouth strike: Anglo Disease in action?, April 27, 2008
Now that the news that the Forties pipeline has to close down is known, the blame game has started...I'd like to flag just a few points that seem to be typical of our times, and maybe warrant making this a symptom of the Anglo Disease, ie the wholesale domination of our economies by reckless financial capitalism.
Grangemouth: the origins of dispute (Thread 1), April 22, 2008
It therefore looks like Ineos will have to proceed with closing the plant which they say will take 4 weeks to restart. We'll be back with a fresh thread in a couple of hours.
Nuclear Britain, Jan 15, 2008
...considering the nuclear cliff, has the decision come too late to maintain the nuclear contribution?
New Nuclear Reactors For The UK: Is This Really A Good Idea?, Jan 1, 2008
The UK Energy White Paper: An Academic Critique, Oct 7, 2007
UK Government: 'energy security and climate change, Mar 9, 2007
United States
U.S. Oil and Gasoline Import Statistics, April 25, 2008
I actually started on this post about a year ago, and forgot about it until recently. Here I provide 2007 numbers on the sources for oil and gasoline imports into the U.S., courtesy of the Energy Information Administration.
How Realistic is EIA's US Domestic Oil Supply and Demand Forecast?, April 7, 2008
I was invited to a blogger's conference call on April 1, hosted by the American Petroleum Institute (API). We were told that each blogger would be allowed to ask one question of Peter Robertson, Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of Chevron Corporation.
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, Dec 20, 2007
Why Dick changed his mind, Aug 23, 2007
GAO Peak Oil Report Thread, Mar 29, 2007
The Energy Content of the State of the Union, Jan 23, 2007
Water
Solving Our Water Problems - Desalination Using Solar Thermal Power, May 2, 2008
In this post I'll look at the Acquasol project and then more generally at water scarcity worldwide and some of the approaches being taken to tackle it.
Wind
Why wind needs feed-in tariffs (and why it is not the enemy of nuclear), Mar 3, 2008
"An argument often heard against wind is that it costs a lot in public subsidies for a solution that will always have a limited impact (because it still produces only a small fraction of overall needs, and because of its unreliability linked to its intermitten nature). This is an argument worth addressing in detail, especially when it is pointed out, as the graph shows, that wind is already almost competitive with the other main sources of electricity, which suggests that it might not even need the subsidies..."
2007: record year for US wind industry, Jan 20, 2008
"Shattering all its previous records, the U.S. wind energy industry installed 5,244 megawatts (MW) in 2007, expanding the nation's total wind power generating capacity by 45% in a single calendar year."
Alternative Wind Power Experiments - SkySails and Airborne Wind Turbines, Jan 13, 2008
In this post I'll look at 2 approaches that have received some attention in the press recently - attaching kite sails to ships and airborne wind turbines.
Offshore Wind, Dec 10, 2007
Wind power: some lessons from 2006, Jun 3, 2007
Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007
The First Ever Off-Shore Wind Farm Financed by Banks, Oct 31, 2006
Energy from Wind: A Discussion of the EROI Research, Oct 19, 2006
Why wind power works in Denmark, Aug 31, 2006
Year-End Reviews
2007 - The Year in Review, Dec 31, 2007
Ed note: last node 4071